eng_2016 საპარლამენტო არჩევნები

Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) Results

The International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) is monitoring the October 8, 2016 Parliamentary Elections in all electoral districts around Georgia. ISFED Observation Mission consists of approximately 1,000 accredited and trained observers, including nearly 850 short-term observers, 73 district observers and 70 mobile groups. Observers are deployed to precinct, district and central election commissions throughout the country.

ISFED’s observation of the parliamentary elections is based on the Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) methodology, which enables us to timely detect violations, evaluate the entire Election Day process and verify the accuracy of the official election results. The PVT uses statistics and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and ISFED has deployed 600 observers to a nationally representative sample of polling stations. As a result, PVTs  provide the most accurate and timely information on the conduct of voting and counting and are the only methodology that can independently verify if the official results as announced by the electoral commission are accurate. These elections are the tenth elections where ISFED has used the PVT methodology to assess the Election Day process and to verify the official results.

Key Findings

ISFED has identified several serious violations in the process of counting votes, including cases of violence, which resulted in annulment of the results from these precincts. However, based on PVT results, we can conclude that these violations were isolated cases and they could not have substantial influence on the proportional election results.

PVT findings on the Counting Process

Final turnout was 52.9% with a margin of error of +/-0.9% that is lower than the 2012 parliamentary election when turnout was 60.9%. In 97.9% of polling stations the counting process was without any major incidents, which is not statistically significantly different from either the 2012 parliamentary election or the 2014 election. In almost all polling stations (99.9%) there were no unauthorized persons present during the counting process. This is an improvement from the 2012 parliamentary elections (98.8%) and the 2014 local elections (99.7%). At 99.7% of polling stations, the procedures for sealing the documentation were followed according to the law, before the materials were delivered to the district. This election is better than both the 2012 parliamentary election (99.5%) and the 2014 local election (99.0%).

At 2.9% of polling station, no party representatives were present. There were Georgian Dream representatives at 89.1% of polling stations. Of those polling stations where a Georgian Dream representative was present, party representatives did not file any complaints in 88.7% of them. In 87.6% of polling stations, there was United National Movement representative was present. Of those polling stations where a UNM representative was present, party representatives did not file any complaint in 87.9% of them.  A party representative for the Alliance of the Patriots of Georgia was present in 61.3% of polling stations. In 56.6% of polling stations, a representative for Paata Burchuladze-State for People was present. In 86.2% of polling stations, a party representative other than those listed above were present.

PVT Projections for the Proportional Election

Given the reports received by ISFED about course of the Election Day, ISFED has confidence in the PVT results. ISFED has received reports from 99.7% of PVT observers (598 out of 600 observers). According to the PVT projections, the official results for Georgian Dream should fall between 48.2% and 50.0%. The official results for the United National Movement should fall between 25.9% and 27.7%. According to the PVT, the official result for the Alliance of Patriots of Georgia can be between 4.6% and 5.2%. Therefore, the PVT results cannot definitively say whether or not the party cleared the 5% threshold.

The PVT results for those parties receiving more than 1% are listed in the table below. The PVT projections are calculated at a 95% confidence level.

 

Contestants

PVT Point Estimate

Margin of Error

Range within which the official results should fall:

 

Minimum

Maximum

 

Georgian Dream

49.1%

0.9%

48.2%

50.0%

 

United National Movement

26.8%

0.9%

25.9%

27.7%

*

Alliance of Patriots of Georgia

4.9%

0.3%

4.6%

5.2%

 

Irakli Alasania - Free Democrats

4.6%

0.3%

4.3%

4.9%

 

Paata Burchuladze - State for People

3.5%

0.3%

3.2%

3.8%

 

Nino Burjanadze - Democratic Movement

3.4%

0.2%

3.2%

3.6%

 

Shalva Natelashvili - Labour Party of Georgia

3.1%

0.2%

2.9%

3.3%

 

Usupashvili-Republicans

1.5%

0.1%

1.4%

1.6%

 

It should be noted that for proportional election, there are a total of 3,702 polling stations. There are, on average, 950 voters registered at a polling station. Accordingly the results of one or two polling stations cannot substantially effect the result of the whole proportional election. However, one or two polling stations can have a much larger impact on an individual majoritarian election.

Violations identified during the counting of the votes

Disorganized process

·        At the polling station #79 of the majoritarian district #66 (Zugdidi) approximately at 23:45 during the counting of the votes 10 unknown persons entered the polling station, threw the ballot papers on the floor and destroyed the equipment. One of the observers was attacked – their phone was taken away and destroyed;

·        At the polling station #37 of the majoritarian district #64 (Khobi) the police, special forces and the ambulance were mobilized due to tense situation. ISFED observer was not able to enter the polling station and find out what was going on. Moreover, in the above mentioned precinct the number of votes does not coincide with the number of ballot papers that have been handed out;

·        At the polling station #38 of the majoritarian district #66 (Zugdidi) after opening the ballot box, in the process of the counting, additional ballot papers were mixed with the ballot papers from the ballot box. At some point the ballot papers were thrown on the floor;

·        At the polling station #1 of the majoritarian district #69 (Batumi) process of counting votes was chaotic and noisy. The chairperson was not able to control the work of the Precinct Electoral Commission. Moreover, a member of the District Electoral Commission (DEC) was participating in the counting process, which is a violation of the law.

Limiting the rights of observers

·        At the polling station #11 of the majoritarian district #20 (Gldani) the chairperson and the secretary of the Precinct Electoral Commission (PEC) did not allow the observer to make entries in the record book. The incident was resolved after a complaint was filed at the District Electoral Commission (DEC);

·        At the polling station #77 of the majoritarian district #49 (Kutaisi) the chairperson of the commission did not allow the observers to choose observers to monitor the counting process as required by the law;

·        At the polling station #93 of the majoritarian district #66 (Zugdidi) one of the members of the commission did not allow the observer to look at and check the ID of a voter. Besides, the observer was not allowed to make an entry in the record book.

Improper filling in of summary protocol

·        At the polling station #93 of the majoritarian district #66 (Zugdidi) the number of ballot papers in the summary protocol of the majoritarian results did not match with the number of ballot papers in the summary protocol of the proportional results;

·        At the polling station #51 of the majoritarian district #24 (Gurjaani) one of the members of the commission improperly signed the summary protocol;

·        At the polling station #4 of the majoritarian district #40 (Kareli) changes were made to the summary protocol without attaching correction protocol, as required by the law;

·        At the polling station #11 of the majoritarian district #39 (Kaspi) changes were made to the summary protocol without attaching correction protocol, as required by the law. Moreover, votes for one of the parties was not correctly documented the summary protocol;

·        At the polling station #19 of the majoritarian district #44 (Akhaltsikhe) the number of the annulled ballot papers was not included in the protocol summarizing the proportional results;

·        At the polling station #10 of the majoritarian district #51 (Kaspi) the summary protocol does not include the time of filling in the protocol and was not stamped as required by the law;

·        At the polling station #33 of the majoritarian district #60 (Lanchkhuti) the majoritarian results are not correctly entered in the summary protocol;

·        At the polling station #95 of the majoritarian district #66 (Zugdidi) the summary protocol does not include the time of filling in the protocol and was not stamped as required by the law;

·        At the polling station #61 of the majoritarian district #21 (Zugdidi), at the polling stations #31 #43 of the majoritarian district #31 (Gardabani), at the polling station #40 of the majoritarian district #40 (Kareli) the summary protocols were not stamped.

Improper sealing of the materials

·        At the polling station #19 of the majoritarian district #40 (Kareli) unused ballot papers were not properly sealed as required by the law

·        At the polling station #116 of the majoritarian district #48 (Kutaisi) the ballot box inside the station was opened before the mobile ballot box and special voters lists were properly sealed.

·        At the polling station #1 of the majoritarian district #60 the procedure of sealing the unused ballot papers were not properly followed.

Difference in the number of ballot papers and signatures on the voters list

·        At the polling station #12 of the majoritarian district #54 number of handed out ballot papers was one more than the number of signatures in the voters list. Explanatory act was prepared about the incident as required by the law.

At the moment of the statement ISFED has filed 94 complaints at the Precinct Electoral Commissions (PECs) and 120 complaints in the District Electoral Commissions (DECs). 151 entries have been made in the record books.

Together with partner organizations, ISFED allows you to view violations reported on the Election Day by going to the elections web-portal – www.electionsportal.ge, where election violations reported by three non-governmental organizations are immediately posted on the elections map.

 

ISFED observers reported information to the Data Analysis Center in Tbilisi via short message service, phone calls, and tablet PCs. The Data Analysis Center is comprised of 20 data operators, 20 lawyers, and the staff of the Central Office. ISFED has built a sophisticated PVT database that processes the observers’ texts. All observer data undergoes several quality control tests and, once those tests have been passed, the data is analyzed and incorporated into ISFED’s findings and conclusions. 

 

 

ISFED Observation Mission is made possible with the generous support from the American people, by financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The Election Day mission is also supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Georgia, the European Union (EU) and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The views expressed in  this statement belong solely to the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy and may not necessarily reflect the views of USAID, the United States Government, the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the European Union or NED.